S&P 500 in Frustrating 4th Wave

At this point, our primary count has us in a yellow (b) wave within a 4^th wave of the final blue c-wave while we make our way to our expected top in March.

Within this (b) wave, our primary count has us either having topped out today in the c-wave of the (b) after a 5 wave move up from the prior low of 1302es, or we only completed 4 waves of that 5 wave structure. 

At the end of the day, we began what could be a 5 wave move down from the peak we hit today.  However, since only 3 waves down were completed by the end of the day, the market must consolidate in a wave iv, as depicted in the 3 minute chart, and not break into the price territory of wave 1 at 1322.75, before it makes a 5^th wave down to complete wave 1 down of the yellow (c) wave.

However, if the market were to move over the 1322.75 level before another wave down, then the purple Alt 4 count would appropriately become the primary count, with a potential target as high as the 1329-1332es level, which would also be the region where the c-wave of this yellow (b) wave would be equal to 1.382 times the size of the a-wave.

After we complete this top, our expectation, based upon this pattern, would be a drop in a (c) wave, which is a 5 wave event.  Our targets are identified on the 60 minute and 3 minute charts.  The 1293es level would be where (a)=(c) based upon a top being made today, and the 1280es level would be where (c)=1.382*(a).

Again, as we have stated many, many times in the past, 4^th waves can be quite frustrating since there is no specifically designated form it must take.  In fact, there is still enough time for the market to form a 4^th wave triangle in this region, which would then make the bottoming targets even higher than those just cited.  In the event of a triangle, the likely target may not break the 1303-1307es region.

For now, let’s see if the market will give us a pattern to short at the open, as we had the opportunity to do yesterday.