Risks Are Rising - Market Analysis for Apr 15th, 2024

Today, the market has broken below the 5091SPX support level we have been outlining for some time. And, that provides us with a strong warning that we may have struck a major market top of many wave degrees.  

For the last several months, I have been urging you to be developing a plan to put into action as the market provides us indications that a major market top is being struck.  And, we have now seen our first indication that you should be putting that plan into action.  Should the market continue below 5056SPX, then I will likely turn my primary count into the SPX having topped, as that would then break down below the wave ii as shown.

For further confirmation, we are going to need to see a very strong break down below 4946SPX, which would likely lead to the type of decline we should be seeing once a major ending diagonal confirms its completion.

The other sign that seems to be growing in probability is the potential for completing 5 waves down in the IWM.  Should this pattern complete over the coming weeks and then provide us with a wave 2 corrective bounce, I will be putting on my bear suit, as I have explained many times over the past several months.

For now, the market is providing to us a strong warning shot to the bulls. Clearly, we still need a bit more evidence to make it highly likely that a major market top has been struck.  But, the warning signs have begun to develop.