Rally Target Reached - Market Analysis for Mar 10th, 2026

With the rally off the Sunday night low now reaching the target box I provided yesterday afternoon, we have just about reached an a=c point off the low.  I have it estimated on my SPX chart due to not having the low on this chart that was struck in the futures.  So, the numbers may not be exact.

Based upon our Fibonacci Pinball structure, once the market reaches the 1.00 extension, the .618 extension becomes our support.  That is generally over the 6780SPX region.  So, a break down below that level will be our initial indication that wave 5 may be in progress.

I want to also repost something I posted this afternoon as an alert:

“We are now approaching the 1.00 extension wherein we would have an a=c in a potential corrective rally.  A break below the .618 extension in the 6785SPX region is what we would need to see to get a first indication of the potential 5th wave in the ED down.  But, keep in mind that it will not likely be impulsive since it would be an a-wave in the 5th wave, and they are most commonly 3-wave structures.  So, it will be indistinguishable from a corrective pullback that would be pointing to another leg higher.”

And, this is why these types of structures are so difficult to navigate and trade.  So, we will have to take this one step at a time in the coming days. But, the first step will have to be respecting the resistance overhead, and then breaking down below the 6780SPX region.  That will be the initial signal that a potential wave 5 lower low is where we are heading, which should target the 6490-6550SPX region.