Quick Update on SPX

With the break out over the triangle resistance, I wanted to put send out this quick update to the entire membership:

I have been doing a lot of calculations on the market this morning, as this region has really been giving me a difficult time with this bottoming structure.  There is nothing that is terribly clear to me at the moment other than the market is trying to bottom out in this region in wave 4.  However, if the market starts taking out the 4400ES region, I am going to have to consider a leading diagonal off the lows this week as wave (i), with the deep drop thereafter as wave (ii), with this being wave (iii).  The count is outlined in green.

Again, I cannot really view this as a strong probability until we actually begin breaking out over 4400ES.  But, if it does happen, the probability start rising the the low may already be in place for wave 4. 

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.