Quick Update - Market Analysis for Nov 5th, 2026

Unfortunately, the immediate bullish path in SPX broke down this morning with a break of this week's low.  Yet, the ES still holds a potential (1)(2) start.  That means this is not terribly reliable just yet.

Moreover, based upon the current structure, I am going to put a reasonable floor to the market for a wave ii in green at the 7398SPX region.  That would represent an (a)(b)(c) wherein (c)=(a) from the highs struck before this downtrend began.  Below that, and the red count increases in probability. 

While many of you may not have the stomach for this, that is understandable.  But, until we get a break of 7237, we have no strong indication that this bull market move is done.  We need to break this potential set up to do that.  And, a break of 7398SPX would begin to move the needle.  But, the break of 7237SPX is what we need to settle the issue and invalidate that green count.  I want to remind you again of what I have said these last few days:

"In the bigger picture, there are still two main points you have to weigh. First, until the market breaks the 7237SPX level, we have no clear indications that a major top may have been struck already. And, second, this is a VERY mature bull market, especially when we consider that we are attempting to complete a multi-decade 3rd wave which began in 1932.

These two factors have to always be weighed when making decisions about how you want to be positioned as we go into the end of the year and potentially beyond. But, at this time, there is no CLEAR indication yet a major top has been struck, and until that happens, we have to respect the potential for one more bullish set up.

So, until the market actually invalidates the potential for another major rally pointing us north of 9000SPX, I think we are forced to view that as our primary count. Yet, that does not necessarily make this much easier, as the lack of alignment between the SPX and the ES has caused problems in performing our analysis of this action."