Quick Update - Market Analysis for Apr 30th, 2025

I am posting another update due to this being an important intermediate region right now, which could lead to as much as a 400+ point move. 

For now, I am viewing the spike and reversal of the support region as the completion of a wave 4 in red.  That means that as long as we hold over today's low, I am looking for a wave 5 rally to continue over the coming days.  

Of course, should we break down below today's low, I am going to have to much more strongly consider moving to the yellow count as my PRIMARY, which is what would open the door to the 400+ point decline to the yellow c-wave target box below on the 5-minute SPX chart.

I also want to add a note I posted in the room, which answers questions I get about a "sustained break:"

This would be a good time to discuss a "sustained break."  In this case, we had a spike and reversal of the support.  That happens often, and the manner in which you may prepare for it is to see if the spike below it is a 5th wave or not.  In our case, it was either a 5th wave of a 3rd wave, or a 5th wave of the c-wave of the y-wave.  The latter is still potentially bullish.  But, the point is understanding where in the wave structure you are seeing that break, and if it can lend itself to the expectation of a potential spike and reversal, like we may have had here.  This is one way to understand a "sustained break."

So, for now, in simple terms, I am looking to our next higher target box as long as we hold today's low.  Below it opens that trap door for the c-wave decline in yellow. And if we do break down, I will add a new alternative count. 

 And, if I need to post another update, I will do so after 3PM.  The metals update will be later tonight.