Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2026

I can now reasonably move down to two wave counts.  Of course, we could get another curve ball today, but for now, these two scenarios make the most sense to me.

Clearly, the first is the yellow count we have been tracking for quite some time now.  And, it "should" carry us to the 7900-8000SPX region before we see another larger bout of weakness.  

The second would suggest a major top, and that is in red.  But, in order to begin a confirmation of that path, we would need to break down below the yellow wave i in the 7233SPX region.

Again, the market could still give us another curve ball without getting us to higher highs. - which is one of the counts Garrett presented yesterday.  But, I have to assume that is its intention in taking our resistance yesterday.  For this reason it is likely the most prudent path to wait for this to complete on the upside for the yellow count, and allow an a-b-c corrective pullback to take shape before making any moves.  For now, I am going to make my yellow count primary, but I cannot say it is something I would trust to trade just yet.

Also please keep in mind that if the market does follow the red count, we will likely see a relatively FAST break down below 7233SPX.  So, it will not likely take too long for you to be stopped out on a long attempt if your intention is to buy a wave ii pullback in yellow.  I will likely make that attempt if we get another slow rolling overlapping corrective pullback which will increase the probability of the yellow count vs a very fast and strong reversal which would be more like the completion of the long-term ending diagonal.