Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Nov 14th, 2025

I have been warning that this region is treacherous, and it still is.  There are several ways this can still resolve, but I really do not think an immediate run to higher highs is most likely.  The question will be on how we go lower.

As you know, once we broke the micro pivot the other day, I outlined the potential for the market to drop down to the 6550-80SPX region.  And, that is still well within reasonable probabilities.  I have added a path for that in purple on the 15-minute ES chart.  

However, because of the potential vacuum in the market below us, I am also going to be tracking the 1-2 on the ES chart, and even the red 1-2.  Ultimately, as long as bounces remain corrective, that 6550-80SPX is going to be VERY important support.  If that gives way at any time going forward, we have several paths in front of us that can take us down in a big way, even all the way down to the 6200 region in a relatively direct manner. 

So, as I have been warning for the last several weeks, PLEASE make sure you have a risk management plan in place, as we may be getting a set up that can take us down to the 6200 region quite rapidly.  The 6550SPX support is going to be VERY important in the coming days.  And, again, until 6550 resoundingly breaks, we have no strong evidence that a major top may have been struck.