Quick Market Update - Market Analysis for Nov 6th, 2024

After the i-ii we saw yesterday played out, it gave us a VERY shallow wave ii, and we are now likely seeing the wave iii of [3] of 3 extension overnight and this morning.

For those in the trading room last night, I outlined the break out point, and noted the stop out point if you were taking longs on that break out.  I believe it provided about a 20 point risk to a long trade on that break out I outlined last night.

As it stands now, for those that want to attempt a long trade, there is about 50 points of risk if you take a long in here.  And, this outline, which I just posted in the trading room, explains it:

"One of the hardest things to do is keep track of the various wave degrees all at the same time.  And, even though I have been doing it for decades, it is still is difficult.

So, let me explain what we are seeing in the various wave degrees here and the notations on the chart.

As you can see, I have extended the standard pivot box to where we are now.  This represents the .618-.764 extensions of waves 1-2.  It is when we move through this pivot and attack the 1.00 extension that we would view ourselves as being within wave [3] of 3, which has a standard target of the 1.00-1.236 extensions of waves 1-2.

But, the smaller degree waves i-v which I am tracking are the subwaves of wave [3]. And, it also comes with its own set of supports and extensions, represented by the green lines, as I was outlining earlier this week.  Within that wave degree, we have hit the 1.00 extension of waves [1][2], which is the target for wave iii, which then makes the wave iv of [3] support the .618-.764 extensions of waves [1][2].

However, within wave [3], we also have a i-ii projection, for which we just struck the the 1.764 extension of waves i-ii, which is why I am viewing it as wave iii high.  And, the puillback should take us back towards the 1.00 extension of that wave degree, which is the 5844SPX region.

Therefore, as long as we hold 5844SPX, I am viewing this as wave iv within wave [3] of 3.  However, a break down below the bottom of the box (the .618 extension of waves [1][2] of one higher degree) would suggest we may have a failed Fibonacci Pinball impulsive count.

But, this also gives you parameters if you want to buy long positions on pullbacks.

Take this update one step at a time . . as I started this post, this is one of the most confusing aspects of EW."

In simplest terms, support is 5825-5844SPX.  As long as we hold that support, the next target is represented by the target box overhead for wave v of [3], with the ideal target being the top of that box which is the 1.618 extension of waves i-ii. and overlaps with the 1.00 extension of waves [1][2]. We consider this to be a high confluence target.

Those are the parameters right now.  I will continue to update in the trading room should we move higher. But, should we get to the next upper target, then the standard pivot noted on the chart becomes our support for wave [4].