Pushing Upside Targets - Market Analysis for Oct 27th, 2025

Over the weekend, I outlined the upside targets/resistance in the 6832-54SPX region.  And, today’s gap up moved past that initial resistance region.  But, on the 15-minute ES chart, we have been hitting our head on the 2.00 extension of waves (1)(2) in the ending diagonal structure I have been tracking of late. And, I still think this is a very reasonable interpretation.

However, for this interpretation to bear fruit, it would mean a strong reversal below the wave (4) low should begin imminently. And, due to how incredibly stretched this rally has become off the April low without more than a .236 retracement, I have a hard time expecting even further gains.

So, I am going to outline the supports which must break before we can view a pullback as having begun.   In the micro structure, our first support is in the 6795-6800ES region.  A break down below there will likely be pointing us next to the wave (4) low.   Should that break, then we have an initial indication of a top in place.  

While it is reasonable to expect the market to provide us with a larger decline after this type of move, until support breaks, PLEASE do not turn too bearish, even though this market is exceptionally stretched to the upside.  It is one thing to be neutral in your positioning.  It is another to short pre-maturely.