Pushing Upper Resistance - Market Analysis for Nov 24th, 2025

With the SPX pushing higher today, we have reached the .764 retracement of what I am counting as an a-wave decline within wave 3 of an ending diagonal.  We are also just below a downtrend line, as you can see on the 5-minute chart.

As I outlined the positive divergence on the 60-minute MACD as we were hitting the support box, we are now approaching the resistance box again. If this is indeed a b-wave rally, then we should simply strike that box, and turn down.  That is how technicals work in a corrective bounce, as opposed to hitting the box and consolidating during a bull move.  

So, while there is still strong potential that the market can turn down in a c-wave, I will need to see a clear 5-wave decline for wave 1 of that c-wave to make it a high probability that we are heading lower to the next support box on our chart in the 6360-6404SPX region.

Our main resistance overhead is the 6770SPX level.  Should the market be able to take out that region before providing us with a 5-wave decline, it again opens the door for the market to head to higher highs.  

For now, I am only considering that as an alternative path, as the downside seems more likely as long as we remain below 6770SPX. But, I am saying this while we consider that downside structures have not seen much in the way of completion over the past 7 months.   So, that is why I believe it would be wise to wait for a 5-wave decline if you are considering shorting the market for even a small trade.