Pullback Over? - Market Analysis for Dec 23rd, 2024

While the market did provide us with more of a pullback early in the week as I had wanted to see, I cannot say that the pullback has yet been deep enough to make this wave count a very high probability.

As I noted in the weekend update, the size of the initial rally off the recent low was a bit large for a standard [a] wave within a b-wave.  And, since we have not yet seen a deeper pullback for the potential [b] wave, a continuation in a [c] wave rally now would likely take us beyond the standard resistance region, as represented by the box on the chart, which would clearly place this count into question.

But, I am still going to maintain this count, as it still makes the most sense to me at this time.  Therefore, I am going to wait on making a determination regarding the next larger move in the market until we complete the [c] wave of the b-wave, and then see how the market drops from that region thereafter.

Remember, if the market drops in a clearly impulsive manner, then it strongly suggests that the b-wave rally is done, and a c-wave decline has likely begun.   However, if the drop thereafter is only corrective in nature, then it makes it much more likely that we still have a higher high yet to come, with our next resistance region overhead being in the 6150SPX region.