I just wanted to take a few minutes to post a quick update and I will do a fuller one later.
Clearly, with the break of support, the market is intending to head to our target sooner rather than later. The downside structure is less than clear, and I am making some assumptions with this current count. I do not have high confidence in the count as presented, but it is the best I can come up with due to this overlap. Of course, this can easily take shape as an ending diagonal.
So, our parameters right now - assuming the count as shown - suggest that the market should drop a bit lower towards at least the 3718SPX region, which then will likely see a wave iv bounce, with the resistance for that bounce being 3746-66SPX. If we see that drop and bounce play out, then that bounce is shortable, with a stop just over the pivot at 3766SPX, with our next lower target at least the 3660SPX region.
Again, due to all the ovelap, there could be other ways this takes shape to take us to the target box below. For now, this seems the cleanest. I will update again later.