Overnight Action Has Delayed Santa

While the market had a “reasonable” ending diagonal potential to take us to new higher and complete a (c) wave, the night monkeys put one of their wrenches into the works and screwed that up.  I mean, it’s not like a diagonal is such a reliable structure to begin with.  

But, it now leaves us in a no-man’s land within the market highs and the 6810SPX support.  And, thus far, that support still seems to be holding.   

Yet, this overlapping action we have seen for all of December can be counted in a number of ways. In fact, we can even call the bottom of a more complex (b) wave, and another diagonal starting off that low.  Is it reasonable?  Sure.   Is it reliable?  Not really.  We can just as easily be working on a bigger (b) wave pullback as well. I really cannot say that any number of ways to count this action since the start of December is reliable.

So, I am going to get a bit more “aggressive” and move our micro support up to yesterday’s pullback low just below 6825SPX.  And, as long as we remain over it, I can provide a wave count pointing us to the (c) wave target overhead.   Again, I want to warn that this is not hugely reliable as nothing in this overlapping mess is reliable.  

And, clearly, should we break below support, then I have no choice but to view us as still working on the (b) wave pullback, with a reasonable expectation for a (c) wave rally to follow.  This may be the Santa-rally everyone is waiting for and expecting.  And, for now, I am not seeing anything set up in a more bearish posture than the (b) wave pullback at this time.