Due to the overlap we have been seeing in the market over these last several weeks, it has caused some issues with determining the smaller degree micro-structure. This should come as no surprise for those that have been following our analysis closely over these last several weeks.
Our bigger picture remains the same. I am still looking for the market to rally to 4350+ to complete wave v of 3 of , as you can see on the 60-minute SPX chart. Thereafter, I expect another bout of market weakness in wave 4 of , followed by a multi-month rally in wave 5 of . So, if you are looking for the next trending move in the market, it looks like we may not see one until wave 5 of .
Our current views of wave v of 3 suggest that either it will complete as an ending diagonal (which is now outlined in with the blue count and needs a c-wave within wave [ii] to take us lower), or a more direct impulsive count, as shown in green.
As I noted earlier this morning, the only reason I have to consider the green count right now is due to the inability of the market to pullback in a more appropriate wave [ii] within the ending diagonal scenario for wave v of 3. And, as long as we remain over 4190SPX, we may be setting up a  structure within wave v of [iii], as you can see on the micro 5-minute chart.
But, the main reason I do not like this count is something I outlined over the last few weeks. The initial move off wave iv is not a 5-wave structure in the SPX, although it can be in ES. But, when I do not have it in the SPX, I strongly question its potential to complete the more immediate bullish count.
Unfortunately, due to the overlap, I just cannot provide you with a high confidence, high probability pattern at the moment within the micro structure. Both scenarios are relatively ugly at this point in time. But, both do point higher to complete wave v of 3.
Ultimately, as I noted over the weekend, completing wave v of 3 of  and then wave 4 of  seems to suggest we will see a bit of volatility over the coming weeks/months. But, I would imagine that we will be ready to embark on wave 5 of  this summer, which can potentially take us well into the fall with a minimum target of 4600SPX for 2021.