One Last Try - Market Analysis for Mar 17th, 2020

The market has been trying to make up its mind over the last two days as to whether wave [3] has completed or not.  As I write this update, I can say that the determination is rather easy at this time.

As you can see from the attached 5-minute ES chart, as long as we remain below today’s high, there is an immediate path to a lower low in wave [v] of v of [3] presented by the 1-2 downside set up.  The target would be in the 2265-2350 region.  And, if we do drop and still hold over today’s low, then it would mean wave iv of [v] of [3] is taking shape as a diagonal, as shown in yellow on the 5-minute chart.  And, once tat triangle completes, then we drop in the wave [v] of v of [3].

However, if the market is able to move back over today’s high, then it begins to shift probabilities towards the potential that wave [3] is done, and we will likely be mired in a wave [4] for the next week or two.  The break out would likely be an a-wave within wave [4].

So, its decision time for wave [3] today, and this update is rather short since the market has made it rather easy based upon the current micro structure.

Have a good evening.