Not What I Wanted To See To Be Bullish

To quickly update my perspective on TLT, this drop off the early October high is starting to look like a 5-wave decline.  that is not suggestive of seeing more than a corrective bounce for the next rally. 

Of course, if this does continue lower in the coming week it "could" be a c-wave in a bigger 4th wave.  But, I would be quite skeptical of that potential as the proportions would not likely be suggestive of that count.  

So, if the next rally is clearly corrective, then I would be expecting it to set up a larger decline to at least the 133 region.  But, if the next rally is CLEARLY impulsive, then I may consider the long side again.  

But, I think the risks have risen for a long side rally beyond a simple corrective rally.

Avi Gilburt is founder of