Not Too Much Has Changed

The market has been creeping lower over the last two days, and we are within two points of the 2.00 extensions down in the current impulsive c-wave, which overlaps with the .500 retrace of wave (i).  We also have the minimal number of waves in place to support a bottom being in place.  But, until the market actually provides a turn, having minimal number of waves down is not the same as saying the correction is complete.

To even consider a turn is occurring, I am going to need to see a strong move through 2106SPX, which will likely take us up to test the low blue box market “alt iv.”  Should we be able to break over that, it becomes quite likely that the market has bottomed in wave (ii). 

As I noted before, when an ending diagonal completes, one does not usually have to ask if it has completed, as the price action to the upside is so violent, the market makes it quite clear that it has ended.  And, normally, we need to see the down trend channel broken.  But, in our case, we have two down trend channels to watch, with the higher one being our “lower resistance” region, because this is an expanding ending diagonal.  But, my suspicion is that once we take out the yellow channel, we are likely done with the downside.

Also, remember that when an ending diagonal completes, the market moves up strongly towards the region from which it because, which is in the 2180SPX region.  So, that would be my minimal expectation for wave 1 of wave (iii).

Avi Gilburt is founder of