Not Much Clarity In Today's Action

SPX - This morning I noted that the potential 1-2 (1)-(2) count to the downside was still technically valid but had become less probable due to the retrace through the 2073 level. I also noted that I would need to see a clear 5 wave move down off of yesterday's HOD to consider this count reasonably probable. I would have liked to have seen something in either the price levels or structure today that would have helped give us a signal that this 1-2 (1)-(2) count had become less probable thus allowing us to firmly focus on the count that takes us over yesterday's high to finish off the larger wave (c) of b. Unfortunately this did not occur and in fact the initial move down off of yesterday's high could be counted as a non-overlapping 5 wave structure which is still leaving the door open to both the 1-2 (1)-(2) count to the downside and the larger count taking us back higher to finish off the larger wave b.  So while my primary count is shown in white and is still suggestive that yesterday's LOD was the bottom of wave a thus currently putting us in a wave b retrace it is still a bit unclear the path that this b wave will take.

SPX 60m
SPX 60m
Michael Golembesky is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering US Indices, the US Dollar, and the VIX. He contributes frequently to Avi's Market Alerts service at EWT while also hosting his own VIX Trading service.