No Top Signal Yet

As the really “smart” people debate in the media and in print about what the Fed is going to do tomorrow and how it will affect our market, I am not smart enough to understand much about what they claim is “important” to determine market direction.

So, I am forced to keep it quite simple.  To that end, I still have two questions that I am asking:

1 -  Do I have a CLEARLY completed 5-wave structure off the recent highs?

2 -  Have we convincingly broken below 2950SPX?

The answer to question 1 is that I can count 5 waves down in the SPX, but I do not have a comparable structure in the futures.  Therefore, I cannot say I have a CLEARLY completed 5-wave structure off the recent highs.

As far as the answer to question 2, I think we all know that answer.

Now, please don’t get me wrong.  We have the minimum number of waves in place to substantiate a completed b-wave structure.  However, I cannot say we have any other indications clearly evident to suggest the top has yet been struck.

However, since I do not have a clearly completed 5-wave structure in place, and we remain over 2950SPX, I have to still look higher before I can view this b-wave pattern as completed. 

Avi Gilburt is founder of