Nighttime Update - Market Analysis for Apr 18th, 2024

The market is now extending a bit further than I expected at the close.  While we have no confirmation that a bottom has been struck, there is another 5-wave extension I have noted on the attached ES chart.  

But, I want to remind you that this is not unusual when an ending diagonal completes.  While the initial decline was slow to develop, we are certainly making up for lost time of late. And, I still think this is just the start.  I think we will likely see even bigger fireworks in May and maybe into June once we do see a corrective bounce before likely continuing lower in the coming weeks and months. 

But, the overnight action is simply increasing the probability that a major high as likely been struck. And, as long as the next bounce is clearly corrective, then we will have to prepare for what likely will be an even bigger decline in the coming months. 

For now, I cannot rule out further downside extensions can be seen in wave iii.  But, the main point is that the probabilities are increasing that a major ending diagonal off the October 2022 low has likely been completed, along with a major market top.