Morning Update - Market Analysis for Aug 3rd, 2026

As we just broke the 7580SPX resistance region, we have no bearish set ups in place any more.  But, I still want to address how I am now approaching this region.

First, the misgivings that I have with the yellow count do not go away.  But, needless to say, taking out 7580SPX has caused the probability for the bullish potential to increase.  Yet, I still have many questions about its potential due to the issues I have outlined in the past few weeks.

So, what will it take for the market to get my own money to go long in a bigger way in the SPX?

First, even with the bullish potential that could be suggested by the yellow count, I would need it to prove all 5 waves up to complete the alt i in yellow.  I would then be a buyer of a wave ii pullback, and then add after that with a move back over the wave i and  the larger .618 extension in the 8000 region, which would then be pointing us up towards the 9500SPX region.   

But, the next resistance point which could prove pivotal to the yellow count will be the micro 1.00 extension at 7654SPX. Until we are able to exceed the 7654SPX resistance, there remains one more reasonable bearish potential as presented on the 60-minute chart, with all of this structure being a bigger (b) wave in the correction.  

Therefore, for the bullish count to become my primary count, I would need a break out through 7580SPX, with follow through over 7654SPX.  That would make the yellow count my primary count.

Until that happens, I will be watching how the market reacts in this current region.  Should we see a move up north to 7654SPX, I have added a micro pivot which MUST hold if we are going to move to the bullish count presented by the yellow path.  Until such time as that happens, I still remain skeptical.  

But, remember, a move through 7580SPX leaves us with no immediate bearish set up.  I would view myself as neutral at this point.  But, a follow through over 7654 would make me cautiously bullish.  A completed 5 waves up to the 8000SPX region would make me a buyer on a corrective pullback from that region in yellow wave ii.  And, a follow through back over the wave i high thereafter would make much more aggressively long.  

However, should the market now provide us with a clean 5-wave decline below 7524SPX (the micro .618 extension), this would provide us with another bearish set up.  Until that happens, between here and 7654SPX, I am neutral.

I am trying to be as transparent and forward looking as possible under these circumstances.