Morning Update - Market Analysis for Mar 13th, 2023

I did a live video this morning outlining something that concerns me in the current action, and I strongly suggest each of you that has access to it listen to it carefully. 

Meanwhile, I will try to explain it in writing. 

As I noted in the weekend analysis, if the market would go directly to the 3811SPX region this week or lower in a more direct move, this would concern me as it could be a precursor to the purple count taking shape.  

But, with the big bounce we saw in the overnight action, does that preclude it and suggest we are bottoming in the entire (b) wave this morning?  I am not sure.  Yet this is enough to cause me concern.

Therefore, should we see a corrective bounce back to the 3875-3915SPX region, some of you may want to buy protective positions because a corrective bounce back to there would either be wave 4 in the c-wave of the y-wave of the (b) wave - thereafter pointing us higher in the coming weeks and months - or it may be a 4th wave bounce sending us much lower in the purple count.  Again, I am unsure, as the futures would argue one way, whereas the cash index may suggest the purple path if we see a corrective rally begin.

In order for me to turn bullish, I am going to need to see a 5-wave rally through the 3875-3915SPX region begin some time this week.  Otherwise, I am a bit concerned - enough so that I would consider taking a PROTECTIVE position until the market proves itself. 

Avi Gilburt is founder of