More Downside Still Likely

With the market dropping down to the target we set out for the a-wave of this pullback, the market is now consolidating over that support.

To refresh your recollection of our Elliott Wave perspective on this pullback, the (b) wave will subdivide into an a-b-c structure.  The a-wave within that structure often targets the .382 retracement of the prior (a) wave.  In our case, that is the 2734 region on the S&P 500 (SPX). 

Today, we have basically struck that level.  But, the current structure can allow for another lower low for this a-wave as well.  But, I want to remind you that attempting to identify every twist and turn within a corrective structure can often be like trying to throw jello for distance. 

Assuming any rally is clearly corrective from this region, then I would still be looking for a drop to at least the 2709 SPX region, which is the top of the target box for this (b) wave pullback. Moreover, I would also not want this pullback drop below the 2680 SPX region for an ideal (b) wave.  Any impulsive break down below that support would be a warning to me and make me more strongly consider the alternative yellow count on the 60-minute chart.

For now, the pullback is taking shape as a (b) wave, and I will maintain that strong expectation as long as we remain over 2680 SPX. And, should we drop a bit closer to the 2710 SPX region sooner rather than later, and begin an impulsive 5-wave structure off that region, then it would be our initial signal that the (b) wave is done, and the (c) wave rally to 2860+ has begun.

Avi Gilburt is founder of