Micro Count Still Messy


As the market has been continuing to grind, I have to again note that the micro-count is a bit messy in the SPX/ES.  There is some potential that we are still within wave iii of 1, but if we break out through 3978ES, I would have to begin favoring us already being in wave v of 1. 

So, let’s spend a little time in this update looking at the IWM.  As you can see from the attached RTY chart, it looks like the RTY is actually moving through its wave [iv] of i of 5 of [3].  I would imagine that when the RTY is within its wave [v] of i, the SPX/ES will likely be in its v of 1.  So, I will keep an eye on the RTY/IWM over the coming days.

In effect, when this is saying is that it is still quite likely we need a 5th wave rally in order to complete 5-waves off the recent pullback lows.  And, thereafter, we will be looking for the respective 2nd wave pullbacks in these charts, with a follow through over the high of the initial 5 wave rally being our main signal for the impending melt-up I have been patiently awaiting in the SPX.

So, again, I do not think the market is going to run away from us just yet, as it is still going to take some time to complete this first wave, and then provide us with a 2nd wave pullback.  Moreover, the alternative count in yellow presented on the SPX charts still will remain on the charts until we have confirmed the next break out scenario as described above.  While I am still maintaining this as my alternative count, I would still need to see a CLEAR 5-wave decline to suggest the yellow count has grown in probability.   Until such time, I am going to expect a 5th wave higher in the coming days, as that is the reasonable perspective one should take within a bull market. 

5minRTY
5minRTY
60minIWM
60minIWM
5minES
5minES
5minSPX
5minSPX
60minSPX
60minSPX
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.