May Not Be Out Of The Woods Yet

So, over the last 24 hours, I have been struggling with this issue, so I am going to present it to you for your consideration.

While we have the minimum number of waves in place right now to consider wave 5 of the c-wave of [4] as completed, I am not completely convinced.  Let me explain what is bothering me.

As per our Fibonacci Pinball structure, wave iii of 3 often targets the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2, with wave iv of 3 moving back to the .764 extension of waves 1-2.  Wave v of 3 then targets the 1.618 extension region, with wave 4 thereafter rallying back to the 1.00 extension of waves 1-2.

Now, if you look closely at the 5-minute SPX chart, you will see that the SPX bottomed on April 27th at just beyond the 1.236 extension, and then rallied right back to exactly the .764 extension.  Since then, we dropped down to slightly below the 1.618 extension, and have rallied since.   

Now, admittedly, the ES/futures dropped to the 1.382 extension of waves 1-2 and took us a bit beyond the lows struck during market hours on April 27th.  And, that is why I had initially labeled that low as wave 3 in green. But, in truth, I think the weight of evidence may be making me slightly lean towards the yellow.  But, for now, I am going to leave it as an alternative and see how we develop over the coming day or so.  Yet, due to this evidence, I will probably take one more short trade up in the 4240SPX region.  

But, please make no mistake about this – I am still looking at the market as being in an overall “bottoming” structure.  The only question I am asking is if we need the dreaded lower low before all of wave [4] finally concludes. The risk/reward still favors the upside in a big way, at least in my humble opinion.  

So, for now, we have resistance overhead in the 4245/50SPX region.  And, if that resistance holds, and we see a 5-wave decline off that resistance, that would make it a high likelihood that we see a lower low for wave 5 in yellow.  However, if the market can blow through the 4250SPX region and follow through beyond 4310SPX, then we have a high probability signal that wave [4] is done, and we are likely within wave 1 of wave [5], pointing us ultimately to my ideal target for wave [5] of [iii] off the March 2020 low in the 5500SPX region.

Avi Gilburt is founder of