Market Testing Micro Resistance
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he market opened flat today, with a minor corrective pullback in the morning followed by a steady recovery into the afternoon session. Prices are now trading near the highs of the day and pressing into the lower end of the micro retrace resistance zone from last week’s decline.
A sustained push through this region would provide the first confirmation that the market is ready to extend higher toward new highs. On the other hand, if resistance holds and we turn lower in a clear five-wave structure, that would leave the door open for at least a local top to be in place. As such, the overnight and early morning action tomorrow should give us greater clarity on the near-term direction.
Since last week’s drop, price action has been choppy and difficult to track with a reliable wave count. For that reason, I’ve been focused on the key resistance and pivot levels to guide short-term expectations. Currently, micro resistance is sitting at the 6520–6531 zone. If the market can push through this region, it would be an initial signal that wave v to the upside is underway, as outlined on the ES chart. Conversely, a rejection here followed by a five-wave decline that breaks the 6541 and then the 6425 lows would confirm that a local top is in place.
Should that scenario play out, my attention will shift to the larger support zone at 6239–6161. Holding that region would still leave room for another push higher, but a decisive break below would open the door to a more significant top being confirmed.
From the bigger-picture perspective, there’s no change from the weekend update.
