Market Still Pointing Lower

With the downside follow through off a completed corrective rally, the market may be signaling we are on our way to the 3155-3190 target region below for wave [4] presented on the 60 minute chart.

The great majority of the time, a c-wave takes shape as a standard 5-wave impulsive structure.  When the initial decline off what seems to be a b-wave top is somewhat unclear as to whether it is a standard 5-wave impulsive structure that abides by Fibonacci Pinball, it makes me review the chart for other potential patterns.

As it stands now, the drop off yesterday’s high did not abide by standard Fibonacci Pinball structure.  This makes me question whether this drop can be a [b] wave within a larger degree b-wave structure, as outlined in blue on the attached ES chart, or that this decline may take shape as an ending diagonal towards our 3155-90SPX target region for this c-wave.  The other potential I am tracking is that the consolidation we experienced today is a 4th wave in wave 1 down in that c-wave, as outlined in the brown alt 1-2 structure also on the attached ES chart.

Where this leaves us is with several conclusions.  First, it is likely that the market is setting up a decline towards the 3155-3190SPX region.  Second, it would take a strong move through the 3300 region ([a]=[c] target overhead for the blue b-wave).  Third, we need to break down below the upper micro support noted on the ES chart in the 3223-3231ES region to signal that we are heading directly down to the 3155-3190SPX region, with a direct drop below that support pointing more towards the 3155SPX region.

How this micro structure takes shape will likely become a bit clearer by tomorrow.  But, the main point is that as long as we remain below 3300, it remains likely that we have a date with the 3155-90 region. If the market provides a bit more clarity in its micro structure over the coming hours, I will send out a Wave Alert later this evening.

Avi Gilburt is founder of