Market Proving Some Strength

First, I want to say that it is not likely that we are going to head to 2500SPX or higher without advance warning.  And, even though the market is proving some strength, I still think it is going to take some time until we get that signal.  Even in the most aggressive posture where this has begun wave (3) already, it still means we are likely several weeks away from confirming a major break out.

With that being said, I still cannot say, with any sense of high probability, whether this is the yellow count wave v of wave (1), or if this is just a (b) wave rally.  Unfortunately, this will be one of those times where it will be clear in hindsight, since I am not willing to trade this move higher aggressively, especially when I am rather confident we will drop again.

So, for now, as long as we remain over 2070SPX, then we can continue to subdivide higher to complete this wave v of wave (1).  However, if we break that level, then it opens the door to the (b) wave having topped, or even possibly just the a-wave of the (b) wave. 

Again, this is a rather treacherous region to be involved, so I am personally not doing anything aggressive in the market until it shows its hand on the bigger picture.

Avi Gilburt is founder of