Market Not Giving Up Just Yet

The market is trading relatively flat today and is still trading under the previous high at the 5188 level on the SPX. The overall price action remains relatively sloppy as it has been off of the 2/13 low. This sloppy and overlapping action is still supportive that we are dealing with an Ending Diagonal up off of that low. With this continued grind higher however we still do not have any signal that this Diagonal has put in a top just yet. 

So with that, while the pattern is getting quite full in this region we still need to wait for a break of support to give us a signal that we have indeed topped and until that occurs this still can continue to grind higher before a top is seen.  

As we near the close we are still just barely under the 88.6 retrace level but with the push higher this still may attempt to get that higher high before finding a top as part of the final wave 5 of the ED. 

I will view a move back under the 5127 level followed by a break under the 5090 level as the initial signal of a top. This should then be followed up with a break under the 5056 low to further confirm top. 

Until those levels are broken however we still can continue to grind a bit higher to finish off the yellow wave 5 up over the 5200 level before a top is seen. The longer this consolidates at these upper levels the more likely it is that we will see another higher high. 

As we are still likely dealing with a diagonal up off of the 2/14 low once this does finally make a top the reversal back towards the origination point of that ED should be quite sharp. For now however and as long as we continue to hold this high consolidation we do not have a signal that we have put in a top just yet.

SPX 5min
SPX 5min
SPX 60m
SPX 60m
Michael Golembesky is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering US Indices, the US Dollar, and the VIX. He contributes frequently to Avi's Market Alerts service at EWT while also hosting his own VIX Trading service.