Market Making A Statement

While my primary analysis was looking higher for this week, I was clearly not expecting a move through the 2945SPX resistance in one day.  Yet, by doing so, the market has made quite a strong bullish statement.

Yet, while the market has made that yellow count I was tracking much less likely, it has increased the potential to the blue count.  Moreover, if we do continue higher this week, then it will likely mean the blue count will complete wave [3] in the 3020-3080SPX region. 

So, while my primary expectation was that we would rally from the 2725/50SPX support region to the 3150SPX region, the blue alternative count now provides us with a bit of a detour before we get to the 3150SPX region.

You see, if the blue count does play out as shown now (as modified from the weekend update), then we will have to go through yet another 4th wave consolidation.  It would mean that the consolidation we just experienced was really wave iv of wave [3], and wave [4] is yet to come.  And, the main reason I have to entertain this potential is based upon the projections of the structure which has developed off last week’s low.  In other words, if this continues as an impulsive move off last week’s low, it does not project high enough for our ideal target for wave [5] off the March low.

So, for now, I have placed both patterns on the micro 5-minute chart . . . the green one and the blue once.  The green one would call for more of a pullback later this week, whereas the blue one will likely hold over the 2930/37ES region.  Moreover, the blue count would be targeting the 3020-80SPX region, and would provide us with another consolidation period in wave [4], whereas a [b] wave pullback in the green count would have us targeting the 3150+ region sooner rather than later.

In summary, both of the counts I am presenting still have a high probability of taking us to the 3150+ region.  However, their paths do differ a bit. 

Avi Gilburt is founder of