Market Fighting It Out
By
Today’s session saw the market drift lower into the FOMC, testing the upper end of support on the ES chart. So far, that zone has held as we head into the final hour of trading. As we’ve been noting, the structure would look cleaner with another push higher to complete wave v on both the ES and NQ. As long as support continues to hold, that case remains on the table.
However, should ES break below support, it would serve as an early signal that this move off of the Sept 2nd low has already topped, coming up short of the ideal pattern. While intraday swings have been notable, our broader outlook remains unchanged from recent updates.
On the ES, I’m focused on the 6618–6552 zone as key micro support. Holding this region favors another leg higher to complete wave v of c of (5) of the larger wave 5. A sustained break below would be our first signal of a top. Additional confirmation would come with breaks under 6510 and then 6450. Should that occur, next support of a larger degree sits in the 6335–6196 zone, and a break of that region would suggest a larger-degree top may be in place.
For now, the market continues to battle it out in this range. We’ll need resolution here before gaining clarity on the next directional move in the very near term.
