Market Down Today, But Still Remains Over Support For Now
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Today the market traded lower as we moved into the lower end of the resistance zone for the move up off of the May 19th low. That move lower is still only a three-wave structure and is trading well above even the upper smaller-degree support levels. So until we see a break of that support zone and/or see a full five-wave move down off the highs, we still do not have any indication that we have put in even a local top just yet. So while we do have a potentially complete count on all timeframes here, until we see a break of support and/or that five-wave structure to the downside, we still cannot rule out further upside extension before any meaningful top is found.
As shown on the ES chart, the first key upper support zone that I will be watching to give us an early indication that we may have put in a top remains in the 7519–7492 zone. If we can break that zone, then it would give us an early signal that we may have put in at least a local top. From there, we still would need to break back under the 7352 level on the ES to give us further confirmation that a larger top may be in place in either the green wave 5 or the blue wave 1. From there, the 7263 level and then the 7083 zone would provide us with further confirmation that a larger top may be in place.
For now, however, we still need to see how this reacts if and when we reach the upper support zone, and until that zone sees a sustained break below it, I still cannot fully rule out seeing a push into the next overhead resistance zone, which comes in at the 7633–7703 zone overhead.
So, for the time being, I will remain patient in what is still a very extended market and continue to watch the key pivot levels that we have been laying out, allowing the market to dictate whether it is ready to finally put in even a local top or whether we will continue to see it extend higher before that top is found.
