Market Continues To Follow The Expected Path
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After consolidating yesterday today we saw the market breakout higher in what counts best as the wave v of (iii) as laid out per the blue count. This breakout higher was fairly well telegraphed as we saw a flat consolidation in the position where we should have seen it for the blue wave iv of (iii).
Today we touched the lower end of the target zone for the wave (iii) thus giving us enough waves to consider the wave (iii) completed. We do however still need to break under upper support to give us a signal that we have indeed topped in that wave (iii) after which point we can watch support below for the wave (iv).
As long as that support holds then the pressure will remain up per the blue count as the pattern does still look incomplete but we should have either already put in a local top for the wave (iii) or be very close to doing so at current levels.
Drilling down to the five-minute chart I would want to see a break of the 4879 level to signal that we have put in a local top in the wave (iii). From there, I would want to see 4870 broken to give us further confirmation of a top. From there, support for the wave (iv) comes in at the 4849-4836 zone below. As long as that zone holds we still should see this push higher to finish off the larger blue count which likely needs several more fourth and fifth waves to finish off the pattern.
If we break under the 4833 level then it would re-open the door for the yellow count to come back into play but we still would need that followed up with a five wave structure fo the downside. For now however and as long as we hold the support noted above the pressure will remain up to finish off the larger blue count.
