Losing Steam - Market Analysis for Aug 13th, 2026

While the market finally began the rally we wanted to see to the next target overhead, the manner in which we seem to have rallied is leaving a bit to be desired from a structure standpoint.

As a purist, I would view the rally today as completing the 3^rd wave within wave (3) of v of (iii). That means we need one more rally to complete just wave (3) of v of (iii).  But, something looks off about the structure.

So, for now, I am going to remain a purist and expect another rally to complete wave (3). However, should we see another higher high, and then break back down below today’s low, then I would have to view wave v of (iii) as completed as an ending diagonal.

In summary, I am still looking for AT LEAST one more push higher to complete wave v of (iii). But, once we approach the target box overhead on the 5-minute chart, please do recognize that the next move up to that target box may be all we get to complete wave v of (iii) (or the (b) wave in the alternative count.

As of now, the 7650SPX region is our support moving forward.