Looks Like 4800+ Sooner Rather Than Later

With the market giving us hints of heading higher sooner rather than later yesterday, the upside follow through today does provide us with a reasonable 5-wave rally off the recent pullback low.  This suggests that wave [iv] is potentially done and we have begun wave [v] of iii, as you can see on the 5-minute SPX chart.  This also suggests we are near completion for wave [1] of wave [v] of iii.  This means it is reasonable to expect a wave [2] pullback in the coming days.

As long as the market provides us with this [1][2] structure, then it is likely we are heading to the 4800SPX region, with a minimum target seeming to project to the 4820SPX region, with potential to extend up towards the 4850SPX region.  But, this will all depend on just how deep wave [2] pulls back in the coming days.

As we look towards the 60-minute SPX chart, I have now added an alternative that suggests the next rally would complete all of wave [3].  While I do not think this is a high probability at this point in time (which is why it is classified as an alternative), I think it would be time for most people to consider raising some cash (not a  lot since we are still in a bull market) in order to take advantage of the wave [4] expected pullback in early 2022.  

Remember, in bull markets, surprises come to the upside so you don’t want to take yourself out of the market in a big way.  We are likely heading much higher in 2022 (as high as 5500), but I think we will need to see a larger pullback first.  And, the amount of potential near-term upside I am seeing  (as high as 4960SPX) will be much smaller relative to the potential downside in the 4440SPX region once we exceed the 4800SPX mark.   So, just something to consider.