Looks Like 4800+ Sooner Rather Than Later

With the market giving us hints of heading higher sooner rather than later yesterday, the upside follow through today does provide us with a reasonable 5-wave rally off the recent pullback low.  This suggests that wave [iv] is potentially done and we have begun wave [v] of iii, as you can see on the 5-minute SPX chart.  This also suggests we are near completion for wave [1] of wave [v] of iii.  This means it is reasonable to expect a wave [2] pullback in the coming days.

As long as the market provides us with this [1][2] structure, then it is likely we are heading to the 4800SPX region, with a minimum target seeming to project to the 4820SPX region, with potential to extend up towards the 4850SPX region.  But, this will all depend on just how deep wave [2] pulls back in the coming days.

As we look towards the 60-minute SPX chart, I have now added an alternative that suggests the next rally would complete all of wave [3].  While I do not think this is a high probability at this point in time (which is why it is classified as an alternative), I think it would be time for most people to consider raising some cash (not a  lot since we are still in a bull market) in order to take advantage of the wave [4] expected pullback in early 2022.  

Remember, in bull markets, surprises come to the upside so you don’t want to take yourself out of the market in a big way.  We are likely heading much higher in 2022 (as high as 5500), but I think we will need to see a larger pullback first.  And, the amount of potential near-term upside I am seeing  (as high as 4960SPX) will be much smaller relative to the potential downside in the 4440SPX region once we exceed the 4800SPX mark.   So, just something to consider.

5minSPX
5minSPX
60minSPX
60minSPX
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.