Kinda Stuck In Neutral

The market has now been meandering between the low of wave [iii] and wave [iv] resistance.  And, we seem to be stuck.

Before I begin, I wanted to note that I have raised resistance on SPX due to the potential that IWM has that another move higher can be seen, as IWM has still not struck its ideal target for a 4^th wave bounce.  

But, the main point right now is that the micro structure leaves the door open to another push higher before we see that wave [v] down.  And, I cannot say that I have a high probability micro path as to how we get there.  Again, there is still potential of one more push higher before wave [iv] completes.   The key now will be the 4219SPX level.   

If we hold over the 4219SPX level, we still can make a run towards the 4266-4280SPX region for a more protracted wave [iv].  And, as I said before, the IWM still has not struck its ideal resistance for wave [iv].  

For now, I am going to keep it simple.  As long as we remain below today’s high, I am going to assume wave [v] down has begun.   If we break out over today’s high, then it is quite clear that wave [iv] is not likely done.

But, I do want to add a note about the 60-minute MACD.  As you can see, it has certainly come off the floor and is now presenting us with a positive divergence set up.  In other words, a lower low in price will likely be met with a higher low in the MACD.  And, that is a strong bottoming signal.  All we now have to do is hold over 4165SPX.