Is the Market Ready to Rip Higher?
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Today, we saw the market push higher overnight and follow through into the afternoon session. This opens the door to the possibility that wave (a) has bottomed, potentially completing the Ending Diagonal we’ve been tracking over the past several weeks.
If that Ending Diagonal is indeed complete, we should expect a continued, strong move higher, targeting the 6900–7029 region overhead.
That said, there is still meaningful resistance above that must be cleared before we can confidently confirm a sustained move higher. Additionally, I have some concerns with the Nasdaq structure, as I cannot yet identify a completed Ending Diagonal into the recent lows.
For the Nasdaq to have completed wave (a), it would need to have formed a more complex and less reliable WXY pattern. Because of this, I remain somewhat cautious in calling a definitive bottom at this time. I will be watching key resistance levels closely for confirmation.
On the ES chart, the key resistance zone to overhead lies between 6664 and 6712. A sustained break through this region would increase the probability that wave (a) has bottomed, as shown in white on the chart.
However, failure to break above that zone, followed by a break lower, would leave the door open for another lower low, as laid out per the green count and the possibility of a larger Ending Diagonal still unfolding. This scenario aligns more closely with what I’m currently seeing on the Nasdaq, which is why I remain cautious.
If we do break through resistance, it would likely trigger a sharp reversal higher toward the 6900–7029 region, which would be typical behavior following the completion of an Ending Diagonal.
So while there is a compelling case that a bottom may already be in place, the lack of a clean, completed pattern on the Nasdaq keeps me from making that call with full confidence. For now, I’ll remain patient and look for confirmation via a clear break above the resistance levels outlined above.
