Is iii Done?

As the SPX meanders, I have to note that we still have not struck the ideal target for wave iii within an ending diagonal, which is the 1.236 extension of waves i and ii.  In our case, that is the bottom of the blue box just overhead on the 5-minute chart.  

So, I am going to keep this update rather simple.  As long as we remain over today’s low, I am going to leave the door open for another push higher to strike that target box overhead.  However, if we break below today’s low, then I have to assume we are in wave iv.  

Ultimately, as I noted over the weekend, as long as we remain over the 4200SPX region of support, I am looking higher towards the target box in the top right corner of the 5-minute SPX chart to complete this rally and potentially the larger degree green b-wave or yellow wave [1].  And, then it will all be about how the market declines from this topping structure, as that will tell us the applicable path for the remaining part of 2023 and potentially well beyond.