Is This The Final 4th Wave Of This Rise Since October?

With the market topping late last night at the 1809ES Fib, the pullback now seems to best be counted as a wave (4) of v of 5.  The level with the most confluence for this wave (4) seems to be the 1796ES level, which is where c=1.382*a within this (4), as well as the .382 retrace of (3).   Therefore, if one wants to attempt another long trade, that would be the region to go long, with a stop just under the 1792ES region.   A break down below that region would be our initial signal that wave v of 5 has topped and we will be heading down into the mid 1700's next.

But, due to the extreme bullishness thus far, I think we have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt that they will try to run it up one more time into the Thanksgiving holiday, as long as we remain over 1792ES.

Avi Gilburt is founder of