Is The a-wave Done?

I will be doing a live video this morning for everyone in our main service to make sure you understand how I am seeing the market right now.  But, my primary expectation is that we still see one more drop to complete this a-wave into the 2250-2300 region.

There are a number of reasons I am still looking for that last leg down.  First, we are still below the pivot noted on my chart.  Second, while the futures did strike the target box I put on my chart for this a-wave, the cash index did not.   Third, there was no positive divergent bottom in the low we struck this week, and the great majority of times we should see some amount of divergence at a low.

So, for all these reasons, I am still looking for one more bout of weakness in the coming week - as long as we remain below resistance.

However, as I did note, the futures have already struck the target we laid out for this a-wave.  So, my alternative perspective is that the a-wave is done.  And, if it is done, I have added a proposed path as to how I see the b-wave rally playing out onto the 60-minute chart  The most important factor to note is that I think a (b) wave will bring us back down into the 2400-2500 region in the coming months, which will then point us to AT LEAST the 2800 region from there.   The main reason I think the 2800 region will be minimally struck - IF THE a-wave IS DONE - is because we would have an a=c to 2200 from that level for wave 4.

I will explain all of this in the live video, but at least wanted to put my thoughts into an update before I do.

Avi Gilburt is founder of