IWM May Top Sooner Rather Than Later

There is not a lot for me to add to the analysis in SPX, as we are approaching the .382 retracement of last week’s rally as I write this. And, as long as we continue to hold support, I am looking higher in the SPX.

The bigger issue right now is the IWM.  Initially, I was leaning towards wave 4 as still ongoing.  However, with the continued move higher over the last two days, I have to reconsider that perspective.  Should we break out over the high of the [b] wave, I have move into the assumption that we are in wave v of 5, with wave 5 taking shape as an ending diagonal.  And, my preference would be that this rally is just the a-wave of wave v.

So, overall, I still have no indications a top has yet been struck in the overall equity market.  But, we are certainly getting closer. And, once the IWM completes its pattern, I will become VERY cautious, and will be on watch for an initial 5 wave decline from the target region to suggest that the larger degree c-wave decline has begun.