I Hate Double Bottoms
By
Avi Gilburt
The reason I hate double bottoms is that often clouds the micro bottoming structure. Yet, that is what we have to deal with at this time on the SPX.
Before I move into the micro structure, I want to again reiterate that my main count still holds as a wave iv pullback within wave 3 of [3] of [iii]. And, I maintain that perspective for as long as we hold over the 4100-4120SPX support. We would need to see a break down below the .382 retracement of wave iii (the 4095SPX region) for me to even consider the alternative in yellow.
So, again, I want to note that I expect us to be starting the next rally towards 4400SPX in the near future.
However, the double bottom does cloud whether we have begun that rally at this time. If you look closely at the 5-minute SPX chart, you can see that there are two equally reasonable interpretations for how to view the double bottom. The blue count has the a-wave bottom at the first bottom, with the 2nd bottom being a b-wave and this rally as a c-wave in the alt b count in blue. That means that we will have one more decline towards support, but likely targeting the 4095-4100SPX region to complete the c-wave of a more protracted wave iv.
The reason I am considering this alternative at this time is because we really need the wave [1] of wave v of 3 in the green count to be taking us back to the all-time highs, if not even making a higher all-time high. The larger the wave [1] becomes the more likely we can reach the 4400SPX region without the need of massive extensions. But, if we come up short, I think the b-wave potential has more bite.
So, if the market can extend up towards the prior highs, then I will feel a bit more confident about the (1)(2) immediate set up. If we cannot do that, then it will all depend on how we drop off a high. If it is clearly impulsive, then I will have to take the blue count more seriously. This will likely only delay us in starting wave v of 3 of [3] of [iii] until next week – assuming we stay over 4095SPX. But, if the drop off the high is corrective, and then we take out the high, then we are on our way to 4300+ within wave v of 3 of [3] of [iii]. But, with such a small wave [1], we will need to see some massive extensions in order to reach our targets. So, the smaller this rally is, the more I am leaning into the blue count.
But, I will close with this last note. The MACD on the 60-minute equity charts I track have all moved into the traditional oversold levels from which we normally bottom within a 3rd wave, and have turned up from there today. So, I can't say I am at all bearish, but I am just wondering if we have one more loop down before wave iv is done.
