I Am Bullish - Market Analysis for May 19th, 2021

I know it is a simple title, but it still describes my “sentiment.”   But, while I am generally bullish and looking for higher levels this year, I am still uncertain as to how the current region is going to resolve.

The ending diagonal that Garrett outlined yesterday is hanging by a thread today.  While the ES had a lower low than the SPX last week, we really need to work with the cash chart and must remain over that low in order to consider this a wave [2] pullback in that ending diagonal.

As I also outlined in the live video today, there is an argument for consider 5-waves up off last week’s low in the ES and the RTY/IWM, with this being a 2^nd wave pullback.  But, I simply do not have anything even close to that potential in the SPX, which makes me strongly question that potential count.

Moreover, should we break down below last week’s low, then I may be viewing this as a much more complex wave iv.  While the yellow count still refuses to go away, I still view it as my least favorite potential based upon how I see the charts right now.  

So, ideally, we really should remain over the 4000SPX region and begin a rally towards the 4350+ region to complete wave v of 3 in the coming weeks.  But, for now, the micro count is not at all clear in the SPX, other than I remain bullish in the bigger picture.