How Deep Will We Pullback?

Today, in moving down to the 2189SPX region, we have an a-b-c structure off the recent highs, wherein the c-wave is equal to 1.618 the size of the a-wave. That is also the .382 retracement of wave alt i in dark green, which is the much more immediate bullish count.  My “preference” would be for this to simply be an (a) wave of a bigger pullback, but the market does not always give me what I prefer.

The issue I have presented so many times before is that when you expect the heart of a 3rd wave, you don’t always see deeper pullbacks, as they can often be quite shallow.  So, while I will maintain a “preference,” I will be on the look-out for a clear impulsive structure off any low we strike.  So, I will be tracking each rally we see for impulsive structures, which would place us on warning that we do not see any deeper pullbacks.

Needless to say, the next time we break out over the 2213/14SPX region which has sent us down each time thus far, it will likely be the prelude to the heart of a 3rd wave higher.  But, for now, I remain cautiously optimistic, but while recognizing this pullback can still take us lower.

Avi Gilburt is founder of