How Bullish Are We REALLY?

With today’s market strength taking us a bit beyond the 3615SPX resistance, we certainly have to consider bullish options if the market should provide more evidence in the coming day or two.

My primary count still views the current rally off last week’s low as a [b] wave within wave [2] of [iii] in the SPX. That would suggest we should be starting the [c] wave down in wave [2] quite imminently.

But, today’s strength has taken this 3rd wave off last week’s low towards the 1.618 extension from the low struck last week.  Therefore, that can reasonably be considered to be a 3rd wave in a 5-wave structure off last week’s low IF the market holds over the 3585SPX support for a 4th wave, and then provides us with a 5th wave into the 3660SPX region.  That would complete wave 1 of wave [3], as now shown in yellow on the 5-minute SPX chart.

This means that we will need to see the market begin an impulsive decline below 3585SPX post haste in order to maintain our primary count for a more protracted wave [2] of [iii].  

However, if we do complete 5 waves up into the 3660SPX region in the coming days, then the market would be projecting us to at least the 4200-4300SPX region.  Should we see that break out sooner rather than later, the question will then center around how we get to that target region.  If the market completes 5 waves into that target region, then it is most likely only completing a much larger wave [1] of [iii], as I have been highlighting in my weekend updates over these last two weeks. This would likely mean we would retest our break out region in the 3600/3700 region for blue wave [2], and then target the wave [3] in the 4900/5000 region later in 2021.

Yet, if the market would provide us with just one strong extension for wave 3 in yellow, that would make it much more likely that we are heading directly to the larger degree 1.00 extension on the 60-minute chart for wave [3] of [iii] in the 4600SPX region.  So, much will depend upon the structure the market develops as we rally to the 4200SPX region should we see the more immediate break out set up develop over the coming days.

In the bigger picture, I am trying to maintain a perspective on the larger degree structure which is pointing much higher into 2021, but I am also trying to maintain some standard targets for pullback structures in the near term.  Ideally, I would still much prefer to see the [c] wave for wave [2] pullback deeper over the coming week or two.  However, I am not going to be foolish to ignore the potential that the heart of the 3rd wave may begin sooner than I desire. For this reason, I am placing the parameters before you in order for you to recognize the signs as to when this market will want to break out in the heart of wave [iii] and whether it will happen sooner rather than later. 

5minSPX
5minSPX
60minSPX
60minSPX
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.