Honey Badger Rally - Market Analysis for Jun 12th, 2025

With the market not exhibiting the typical hallmarks of the conclusion of an ending diagonal (a spike up followed by a sharp reversal), it is simply continuing to grind higher towards the prior all-time high, despite a month of negative divergences evident on the 60-minute chart.  Yet, once this rally concludes, I am expecting a sharp reversal to begin the next larger pullback.  That begins with the break-down of the 5920SPX level, with follow-through below 5767SPX.

So, there really is not much more for me to add to the analysis at this time. While I am certainly of the opinion that we are stretched to the upside, the market has done this a number of times over the last 5-7 years.  But, the result is usually the same – it ultimately resolves with a strong move back down.   And, the nature of that move back down is still the unanswered question on our charts, and it will define how we approach this market for the rest of the year.

Again, sorry about the broken record. But, it almost feels as though the market is just waiting for a catalyst.  It certainly does not need it, as we have seen many declines take place without a catalyst, but it is simply the way this “feels” right now.