Holding Micro Support For Now

Days like this, I am somewhat embarrassed in posting an afternoon update, but not having anything to really add to the analysis.  

As we saw this morning, the market just barely held the micro-support I outlined yesterday.  And, as long as we hold today's low, then we can still push higher one more time to complete the [c] wave of a/2.  And, of course, a break down below today's low can then set us up for a test of the more important 4470SPX region.

So, I am simply going to attach the analysis from last night, as nothing has really changed, and there is nothin more I have to add to the analysis.

"As I outlined  our expectation last week and over the weekend, we have now reached our next resistance region in the 4540-4560SPX region.  And, I would reasonably expect a pullback from here.  However, I am not sure if the pullback will simply be a micro-4th in this very extended move up or not.  So, right now, 4520/25SPX is our micro support.  A break-down below that region will then have me again focusing on the 4455-4470SPX region.

So, keep in mind, a sustained break of 4470 with follow through below 4455SPX signals that a significant top may have been struck.  And, the nature of the decline structure will tell us if we are indeed going to set up a major decline as we look towards 2024, or if the market is going to pullback correctively and point us to the 4800+ region next.  

Unfortunately, until we see the structure of the decline below 4455SPX, I am unable to make that assessment.  So, it may still take us another week or two before we will be able to begin to outline the next larger degree move in the market.

One thing is quite interesting though.  We certainly rallied beyond the .764 retracement of the green wave 1.   The greater majority of the time that this happens, it provides a hint that this rally is not really a wave 2.   However, due to the potential risk inherent in the green count, I am still going to remain cautious until I see how the next decline takes shape.  

Now, if the market is somehow able to hold over 4470SPX, and then marginally extend over the 4607SPX (as the maximum resistance I see in this move up  for the yellow a-wave is 4640SPX), then it would invalidate the green count completely, and make the next decline a clear buying opportunity.  But, I am having a hard time seeing how the market is going to continue to extend that high at this time.  

So, again, for now, 4524SPX is micro support, followed by 4455-4470SPX.

Lastly, I have been asked a few times about a micro wave count.  But, I would much rather have everyone focused on the bigger picture right now, as I think it is too important to risk getting lost in the leaves.  This is an important time to be focusing on the forest."

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.