Have We Bottomed In All Of The Blue Wave (ii)?

I chose the title for this update because I have been asked that question several times in the past hour. So with that it looks like this is the most pressing question at the moment so I will address it directly and upfront in today's update. 

With the fairly deep drop today, the purple "uber bullish" count is much less probable on the ES/SPX and invalid on the NQ. So with that, the still very bullish blue count now comes back into the forefront in regards to a more immediately bullish outcome. 

The drop today was certainly deep enough to have been all of the wave (ii) in blue moving beyond the 38.2 retrace of the entire move up of of the 4678 low. Furthermore, the move down off of today's HOD does count best as a corrective three-wave structure. Additionally,  I can make the case that we have five up off of today's low. This is also supportive of potentially having bottomed in all of the wave (ii).  So with those factors in play, it is certainly possible that we have bottomed in all of the blue wave (ii). This would be the new most immediately bullish path. 

Now with that being said we still have a bit of work to do to confirm that this is indeed the case and that we are ready to breakout to new highs. First, we need to see a corrective retrace from around current levels. This would keep the potential five up off of the low clean from a fib pinball perspective. From there we would want to see a clearly corrective move lower that holds support (38.2-76.4% of the move up off of the low) that is then followed up by a breakout over the 4798 level. At that point I would then lkey adopt the blue count as the primary count moving forward with all of the wave (ii) having already put in a bottom.

Now if we move lower and break back under the 4740 level then we still could be developing a larger wave (ii) in blue that still would ultimately resolve up as long as we were able to hold over te 4709 level. If that level were to break however then it makes it much more likely that we are following the yellow count and heading lower in the wave (c). Now as I noted the initial move down off of the highs does count better as three waves rather than five which is making the start to the potential yellow wave (c) a bit more questionable. I will however keep a close eye on support if we do indeed break the low that was struck today at the 4739 level.

So while I cannot answer definitively if we have bottomed in all of the wave (ii) per that blue count, I can say the odds have increased. We still have some work to do to confirm this however the parameters are fairly clear at this point in time so it is simply a matter of waiting and watching to see how the market reacts at those levels.

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Michael Golembesky is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering US Indices, the US Dollar, and the VIX. He contributes frequently to Avi's Market Alerts service at EWT while also hosting his own VIX Trading service.