Has The Decline Begun?

I will start off by saying that I will be truly amazed if have now rallied to within a few points of the 4607 high, and will not exceed it.  I do not remember, off hand, when I have seen a 2^nd wave retrace this deep and not invalidate.  But, then again, this may not be a 2^nd wave, and we shall see what the structure suggests once we break down below support.

For now, I am still waiting to see if we are able to break down below 4537SPX.   That would be an initial indication of a high in place.  Of course, I still need to see a break down of the bigger support region (4500SPX) before we can confirm a high in place, and begin making any assessments of the nature of the decline.

At this point in time, I still have no confirmed top, and the market may yet still attempt a push over 4607.  But, if the top has indeed been struck, I have added a support box on the 5-minute SPX chart which outlines the target for a b-wave.  Moreover, I would expect that wave i in green can take us below the support box.  

In summary, I still have no confirmed top in place, which still leaves a door open to push through 4607 and invalidate the green count.  But, once we do have a confirmed top already having been struck by a break down below 4500SPX, we will be watching the structure of that decline quite intently.